There are only a few certainties every year in pro sports: the Patriots will dominate; the Browns will suck, and Skip Bayless will be wrong about everything. When it comes to betting on sports though, the certainties seem even fewer and farther between. The common belief is that there is no such thing as a lock. Is this the truth or just a myth?
The month of April is already two weeks old, which means the NBA postseason is only days away. Sports gamblers everywhere are looking to out-smart each other this time of the year. Instead of betting on favorites, fans often look for the diamonds in the rough with favorable odds. The 3rd seed in the east, Toronto has a lot of playoff experience. When healthy, the 4th seeded Clippers have one of the best lineups in the league. When you have these thoughts, the truth is, you are actually out-smarting yourself when it comes to the NBA.
While the NFL is known for its parity, the opposite is true for the NBA. All your peers are likely placing money on the top-seeded Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors for good reason. There are rarely, if ever, Cinderella stories in pro basketball. And, the numbers paint a grim picture for the gambler looking for a big pay out, betting on a low seed.
Dating back to the 2013 season, only number one seeds have captured an NBA title. This is hardly a new phenomenon, though. One seeds have won seven of the past nine NBA championships as well. Want further prove of the top team’s domination? Since 1947, 73% of NBA champions entered the playoffs as a one seed. 73%! Translation: betting on the top seeds in the eastern and western conferences aren’t only the smart plays, they are the only plays.
Russian Roulette is thought of as the most favorable casino game in the odds department. If you are willing to play a game that you win 50% of the time, then why not roll the dice on a 73% winner?
Of course, LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers can throw a giant wrench into everyone’s predictions. And, you can never count out James Harden and the Houston Rockets. But, is the goal to out-smart others or to make bank? If you want to collect cash and look like a genius at the same time, then drop big dollars on the top-seeded Celtics and Warriors.